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Thursday 29 November 2012

Your Winter Forecast 2012/2013.

This Winter forecast I stress is entirely my own thoughts and not influenced by any outside source.
HEADLINE.
Cold to very cold conditions generally throughout this winter,Stormy at times, picticulary for Southern Britain, flooding issues are still likely,and generally above average snowfall. Milder weather at times likely but short lived.
DECEMBER.
This month will often see airmases sourced from the Artic move south to cover the Uk for most of this month,with limited milder spells in to SouthWest Britain. Snow is likely to be disruptive in places and even the South of the Uk could well see snow with perhaps stormy winds with low pressure moving North or NorthEast.
JANUARY
2013 Looks to start off cold and wintry, but this month looks like Northerly to Northwesterly winds will be more common place, so Scotland and Northern England and North Wales bearing the brunt of any significant snowfall whilst South East Britain could well see some very cold frosty weather with subzero or"ice days" and see less of any significant snow but not exclusively. January is likely to see the coldest month overall of the Winter months.
FEBRUARY.
High pressure is likely to establish itself over Scandinavia, so frequent Easterly outbreaks look likely to be more common. The North and East of the Uk look like seeing the driest of the weather but with snow showers likely, but low pressure is likely to move up from the SouthWest at times bringing the threat of snowstorms and flooding rain as the West turns briefly milder. Overall temperatures colder for Eastern Britain a little milder for Western Britain at times but overall still average temperatures or below for all.
KEY THOUGHTS SUMMERY.
*Generally below average temperatures for all,but all areas at times will see some short lived mider spells.
**Above average stormy spell especially for Southern Britain picticularly during December and February
***Precipitation including snowfall above average ,although Eastern Britain may well see average or below precipitation during February.
***Disrupted or Buckled Jet stream leading to some notable severe weather this Winter,which computer models will not pick upon until very near the time.
****Computer models will often underestimate severe weather even in a so called "Reliable timeframe"

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